Mon séjour en Afrique du Sud (Cape Town)

At a time when all parties are expected to be co-operating in efforts to make the peace process work, fighting has instead intensified, with the capital, Bujumbura, coming under sustained, direct attack. Starting on July 6th Bujumbura was attacked from both the north and south for seven days in the worst assault on the capital during the civil war. The attacks were carried out by the Parti pour la liberation des peoples Hutu-Forces nationals pour la liberation (Palipehutu-FNL), currently led by Agathon Rwasa, which has been at war on and off with the Forces armees du Burundi (FAB, the Burundian armed forces) since the early 1970s. Palipehutu-FNL was well-equipped for this latest assault, apparently sourcing weapons through Kamina in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which suggests despite the DRC government's denials that some level of assistance or complicity with Burundi's Hutu rebel movements continues. All but one road into Bujumbura was closed for sustained periods during the week-long attack, making it hard for the FAB to bring in reinforcements from other areas. The capital does not appear to have been under serious threat of being captured by the rebels, but the FAB was caught unprepared for the scale of the assault and panicked in the early stages. Palipehutu-FNL was almost certainly assisted by the other main rebel group, the Conseil national pour la defense de la democratie- Forces pour la defense de la democratie (CNDD-FDD) led by Pierre Nkurunziza, although both groups strongly deny it.

The assault mostly took the form of prolonged and indiscriminate mortar shelling of outlying suburbs such as Musaga and Kanyosha, as well as of the city centre, where the central market was hit three times. UN agencies estimated over 200 casualties, many of whom are Palipehutu-FNL's own child soldiers, and say that at least 15,000 people were displaced by the attacks. On July 14th calm returned to the city and displaced people began to return home, but fighting continued outside Bujumbura. On July 13th the UN announced the withdrawal of all non-essential personnel from Bujumbura, as did the US embassy. On July 15th three non-governmental agencies also announced the suspension of operations in Makamba province, where three international workers had been abducted in the previous week.

The UN Security Council and many governments within the region and among western countries condemned the rebel attacks and called on the militias to sign up to a ceasefire. However, Palipehutu-FNL is notoriously immune to international censure and insists that it will only ease military pressure when the country's new Hutu president, Domitien Ndayizeye resigns. Mr Ndayizeye, a Hutu, succeeded Pierre Buyoya, a Tutsi, as president on April 30th as part of a South Africa- brokered peace process that is intended to culminate in national elections at the end of Mr Ndayizeye's 18-month presidential term in November 2004. Embarrassingly for the new president, of the 40 heads of state invited to his investiture, only one attended, the president of Tanzania, Benjamin Mkapa, who was joined by the South African deputy president, Jacob Zuma, and former South African president, Nelson Mandela. Mr Ndayizeye belongs to the predominantly Hutu Front pour la democratie au Burundi (Frodebu) that won power in an historic election in 1993, but lost it following a coup by the predominantly Tutsi military in 1996. It is hoped that Mr Ndayizeye's presidency will be a central component of the restoration of the status quo ante in order to prove to the Hutu population that diplomacy and peace talks can yield dividends, and that the armed struggle by Palipehutu- FNL and the CNDD-FDD can be abandoned. However, rebel groups deride both the peace process and Mr Ndayizeye's legitimacy, claiming that his government and Frodebu merely provide cover for continued Tutsi dominance through the army.

A UN Security Council mission led by a French ambassador, Jean-Marc de la Sabiere, visited Burundi in mid-June as part of a regional tour. The mission urged the rebels to recognise the new government, but like others before it, had little effect. As well as the attacks on the capital, rebel activity has continued in 16 of the country's 17 provinces since Mr Ndayizeye's presidency began in April. Fighting has been particularly severe in Kayanza, where fierce clashes in late June displaced at least 65,000 people, bringing the total number of displaced persons in the province to nearly 150,000. The total of internally displaced persons nationally is estimated at over 800,000. On July 8th the UN World Food Programme reported that around 44,000 displaced people had begun to return home following a lull in the fighting in Kayanza. However, many returned to find that their homes had been ransacked and that fields had been destroyed. Underlining the rebel's contempt for Frodebu, several of its members of parliament were kidnapped in Ruyigi by the CNDD-FDD in June. Some of those taken have since been released, although others are still being held. The rebels appear to be able to move freely around the province and to cross the border with Tanzania.

In addition to rejecting Mr Ndayizeye's government, the rebels have shown equal disregard for the 3,200-strong African Union (AU) peacekeeping force that is attempting to implement the ceasefire agreements previously signed between the government and two rival factions within the CNDD-FDD, including that led by Mr Nkurunziza, and a minor faction of Palipehutu-FNL. Mr Rwasa's faction of the FNL has always refused to conclude any agreement with the government, and in early July proclaimed that it would "never" do so.

The recent upsurge in fighting may been intended to undermine the credibility of the AU force, the African Mission in Burundi (AMIB). The AMIB began to deploy in late April and reached full strength in June; it has 1,600 troops from the South African National Defence Force (SANDF), 290 from Mozambique and 1,300 from Ethiopia. The commander of the AMIB is a South African general, Sipho Binda, with Ethiopia's Geberat Ayale second in command. The AMIB incorporates SANDF troops who have been in Burundi for two years as part of a protection unit for returning Hutu politicians. In the recent shelling of the capital AMIB forces stood by helplessly as its mandate does not extend to enforcing the peace.

Under the ceasefire agreements the AMIB is required, rather ambitiously, to supervise the cantonment of rebel fighters along with their weapons in special camps. Former combatants are to be regrouped in three phases in Bubanza, Rutana and Muramvya, beginning with the Muyange camp in Bubanza. In theory 2,500 fighters will be received first at Muyange and then transferred to other sites. After several delays the cantoning of fighters belonging to Alain Mugabarobana's minority faction of Palipehutu-FNL began on June 26th at Muyange, supervised by a South African contingent of the AMIB. Only 22 fighters showed up to the cantonment site, reflecting Mr Mugabarobona's negligible military and political significance, although a further 200 are said to be prepared to participate. However, their arrival provoked strong criticism from Mr Nkurunziza's CNDD-FDD faction, which accused the AMIB of hostility for setting up the camp in "its" territory. The CNDD-FDD warned the South African troops to leave or else to face the consequences, and on the night of June 29th fighters loyal to Mr Nkurunziza attacked Muyange. A CNDD-FDD spokesman subsequently alleged that the South Africans had undertaken joint operations with the Burundian army against its positions, a claim denied by the SANDF and most observers. The SANDF defended itself strongly against the attack and reports say that the CNDD-FDD sustained heavy casualties. The CNDD-FDD has since complained bitterly of the bias of the SANDF and the AMIB, threatening further action, but none has been forthcoming. Nonetheless, the attack did confirm fears that the AMIB risked being drawn into the conflict as an active combatant.

On July 4th 150 militia fighters belonging to Jean-Bosco Ndayikengurukiye's minority faction of the CNDD-FDD also arrived at Muyange, accompanied by heavily armed South African troops. The militia fighters were mostly young and had brought few weapons with them. If fighters at all, they are not members of the elite units under Mr Ndayikengurukiye's command.