Mon séjour en Afrique du Sud (Cape Town)

Beside its domestic dimension, this month's coup in Bangui in the Central African Republic has the potential to redistribute the cards in the DR Congo and in the entire region and adds a new level of uncertainty to the forthcoming transitional government in the DRC.

The coup has reinforced one of the Kinshasa's allies, Chad, which provided in the past month a sanctuary for the supporters of the coup's author, Gen. Francois Bozize. On the other hand, the coup indirectly strengthened the position of Joseph Kabila's regime, ahead of the last plenary session of the Inter-Congolese Dialogue in Pretoria this month. The session is supposed to be followed by the installation of a transitional government, which must be appointed by a follow-up committee chaired by Kabila, composed of the different parties.

Bemba damaged

The coup delivered a serious blow to one of Kabila's main rivals, the leader of the Movement of Liberation of Congo (MLC), Jean-Pierre Bemba, whose troops on two occasions rescued the regime of the ousted CAR President, Ange-Felix Patasse, from army mutinies.

Now Bemba has been deprived of access to Bangui's Mpoko International airport and of access via CAR territory to both the Cameroonian port of Douala and Sudan, unless he comes to terms with Bozize. This is difficult, since his soldiers went on the rampage in Bozize's home region in the north of the CAR just one month ago.

The loss of Bangui is important for the MLC because it used the CAR routes for its diamond, coffee and timber exports. Of course, Bemba still holds the 2km Gbadolite tarmac airstrip, but the aircraft which land there are doing so in violation of the integrity of DRC territory and it is likely that Bozize will now prevent CAR-based diamond dealers flying to the MLC zone.

Two options remain for Bemba. The MLC can use the land route to Uganda, but the roads are in a disastrous state, and he can also allow aircraft to switch between Kampala and Gbadolite. Or the MLC can try to smuggle its goods out through Congo-Brazzaville. But in both cases, Bemba becomes dependent to a large extent on two countries that have now close ties with Kinshasa.

Congo-Brazzaville is also moving alongside Angola and the DRC in a strategic alliance. Recently, Uganda, which supports Bemba's enemies of the Congolese Rally for Democracy-Movement of Liberation (CRD-ML) in the Ituri region, who are also backed by Kinshasa, was given special permission by Kinshasa to stay until April 24 in the town of Bunia to restore security there.

All in all Bemba has little alternative but to relinquish his bid for independence from the Kampala regime, or remain landlocked.

Uganda strengthens

Meanwhile Uganda's position in the region has grown stronger than ever. Ugandan troops on 6 March took over the city of Bunia and the nearby gold mines of Mongwalu from Bemba's allies of the Hema ethnic group, who belong to the Union of Congolese Patriots militia led by Thomas Lubanga. Then on 18 March a ceasefire was signed between Uganda, the CRD-ML, one dissident Hema militia and three militias from the rival Lendu tribe.

The agreement is supported both by the Mission of the UN in Congo (MONUC) and by the Kinshasa government. The signatories will set up a commission with UN support whose task is to bring peace in this troubled area. As a result, Lubanga and Bemba are becoming increasingly isolated and - at least until 24 April - Uganda, which has increased its military presence in the DRC from 1,000 to 4,000 troops, will be able to mass even more troops if needed.

But while Bemba is becoming isolated he is not yet dead. A report from the Belga news agency which claimed on 19 March that he had been assassinated, proved wrong. On the same day, SouthScan.NET spoke with the MLC leader who said that not even a shot had been heard in Gbadolite. Yet Belgian Foreign Minister Louis Michel, who was asked for confirmation of Bemba's death by several intelligence services, was for several hours left in the doubt. Eventually Michel called Bemba to find out the truth, the MLC leader said.

Belga did not disclose who its source was, but the rumour may well have been part of a process to destabilise the MLC at a critical moment. Some observers in Brussels point out that Bemba's death would have been a mortal blow to the already ailing process, and that the potential disorder which might have followed could have given an excuse to those hardliners in Kinshasa who are not interested in sharing power.

Meanwhile, the negotiations in Pretoria may produce agreement on a government of national unity. Defence issues have been the main stumbling blocks. There has been disagreement about the appointment of a chief of staff for the future unified national army between the government, the MLC and the Goma-based, pro-Rwandan Congolese Rally for Democracy.

Another problem has been the numbers from the respective sides who will be part of future national police.

Finally, the modalities of the "neutral force" responsible for the protection of the future rebel ministers remain a serious problem. In principle there is an agreement between the warring parties that the UN should take the job, but other than South Africa there are not many candidates for the UN force, while a group of private military companies based in Washington is still unable to secure a meeting with the world body. The UN is striving to extend its force from 4,300 to 8,700 to take on the tasks of demobilisation, disarmament, reintegration and repatriation. On top of this, there is an argument between Kinshasa and the rebels about the number of troops necessary to fulfill the ministers' protection job.

South Africa has said it will deploy around 1,200 troops to the Congo next week to join the 148 officers already there. But the commitment was to the strengthening of MONUC in the east, where they may arrive just in time for a new round of warfare, and not for the Kinshasa protection force.

There is another element that may derail the process or provide an opportunity for the Kinshasa government to drag its feet. In an obvious violation of last July's Pretoria withdrawal agreement, Rwandan troops have been crossing the border in Northern Kivu, say civil society sources in the region. On 14 March the Rwandan Foreign Minister, Charles Murigande, warned that the Rwandan army would deploy troops in the DRC if Uganda did not pull out its own military, presenting the scenario of a third Rwandan-Ugandan war on Congolese soil.

Analysts fear that the beginning of the war in Iraq is creating a situation in which the main actors of the region, well aware of the splits in the UN security council, and taking into account that world attention is focussed elsewhere, may start to settle their disputes on the battlefield.

Such was the case for Bozize's coup in Bangui. Likewise, Rwanda's President Paul Kagame, after he dissented with France and the other African nations about the Iraqi issue at the February Franco-African summit, and after his subsequent meeting with US President George Bush, may believe he can send back troops to the DRC without triggering reprisals from the UN.

The climate may also discourage Kabila from being scrupulous in implementing a power-sharing deal which would deprive him of 80% of the seats in both the parliament and the government.

South Africans to send troops

Deployment of 1,268 South African National Defence Force members in the DR Congo is expected to start next week, SANDF joint operations chief director Major-General Jan Lusse said earlier this month. The advance team would leave on March 24, followed by the main group's first contingent on April 14 and the second on April 21.

As part of the UN's DRC peacekeeping operation they will focus on disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration, following the recent peace agreements reached between the warring parties. They will move into a tense situation - there are possibilities of renewed conflict in the east between Ugandan-backed forces and those of Rwanda. There are also signs of dissent in Kinshasa about the peace deal.

The contingent will consist of an infantry group - including headquarters and support staff - of 1,053 personnel, an engineer squadron of 175, a river-crossing ferry unit of 15, a well-drilling squad of 12, and 16 military police officers. They will join the 148 specialist SANDF members already in the DRC. Rotation of the latest group would start in October.

Lusse, in charge of the operation, has watched changes in South African policy towards peace-keeping in the region for some years. He was involved in planning for the Lesotho intervention in 1998, drawing a key conclusion that intelligence had to be improved before more interventions were undertaken. He has been working on the logistics of intervention in the DR Congo for a number of years.