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Mon séjour en Afrique du Sud (Cape Town)

South Africa risk: Security risk

SUMMARY

Violent crime is a major problem, and remains a serious concern for businesses and individuals. South Africa heads a number of international cross-country comparisons of crime, such as the number of murders per capita. Much of the crime is gratuitous: victims are often shot during a simple robbery, with no apparent motive. Car-jacking is also a major concern both in urban areas and when driving between cities. The security industry in South Africa is well-developed, and many foreign firms employ sophisticated monitoring and alarm systems. Aside from crime, there are few other major security risks in the country. South Africa is not engaged in armed conflict with any of its neighbours, and has no active secessionist movements.

 (Suite)

South Africa risk: Political stability risk

SUMMARY

Political efficacy in South Africa is a cause for concern. A general election must be held within 90 days of April 14th 2009, and the ruling African National Congress (ANC) is poised to register another victory. The ANC has ruled uninterrupted since independence in 1994, and increased its share of the vote to nearly 70% at the last election, in 2004. However, Jacob Zuma, the leader of the ANC and national president-in-waiting, is potentially facing a third corruption trial after the appeals court overturned a September 2008 decision to dismiss charges of graft, money-laundering and racketeering stemming from a controversial US$5bn arms deal in 1999. Although the legal process will not be completed before the next election, this will not prevent Mr Zuma from becoming the national president if the ANC wins.

 (Suite)

Knife soldier's case adjourned

The soldier who allegedly stabbed his fiancée several times with a knife in the Atteridgeville magistrate’s court last week has had his case postponed to next month.

Smangaliso Petrus Nkosi, 35, appeared in the Pretoria magistrate’s court on an attempted murder charge on Friday after his alleged attack last Wednesday on Ineth Sibongile Ngobeni, 26, a nurse at the South African National Defence Force’s Military 1 Hospital who had accused him of assault.

Lieutenant Colonel Nico Allie of the SANDF said Ngobeni’s life was out of danger and she was discharged on Friday.

Inspector Daniel Mavimbela of Atteridgeville police said Nkosi’s attempted murder case was postponed to February 18 for bail.


Uproar at soldiers' attacks on women

The Ministry of Defence has condemned the actions of two soldiers in which two women were killed.

This follows two separate incidents last week in which a 70-year-old woman was shot dead and another woman was stabbed seven times inside the Atteridgeville magistrate’s court. Both incidents were allegedly committed by South African National Defence Force (SANDF) members.

“Without prejudging the cases, the ministry would like to state that such allegations against the two SANDF members are serious and must be met with the full might of the law.

“If found guilty, the perpetrators must be punished with the harshest sentence permitted in law,” said a statement by Defence Minister Charles Nqakula and SANDF Chief General Godfrey Ngwenya on Saturday.

It is alleged that in the incident involving the 70-year-old, the SANDF member shot his mother-in-law in cold blood and also tried to shoot his wife but missed.

He then drank a poisonous substance to try to kill himself.

The man from Moletji Blood River outside Seshego is now fighting for his life at a hospital in Polokwane.

The tension arose after the man allegedly hit his 14-year-old son with a pick-handle on the head after accusing him of stealing from him.

The boy sustained injuries to his head and was taken to hospita. He was discharged a day later.

The soldier was arrested and charged with assault with intent to do grievous bodily harm. He appeared in the Seshego magistrate’s court and was released on R1 000 bail.

His case has been postponed to February 2 for trial.


SOLDIERS WILL BE MET WITH FULL MIGHT OF THE LAW: SANDF

The cases against two soldiers from the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) are serious and will be met with the full might of the law, the ministry of defence said on Friday.

This comes after a 44-year-old soldier allegedly shot dead his 70-year-old mother-in-law, in the village of gaMabitsela, near Seshego on Thursday.

Superintendent Mohale Ramatseba said the soldier used an SANDF R4 rifle in the shooting.

After fatally shooting Anna Semenya, the man shot at his wife, but missed, said Ramatseba. He then went to his own parents' home where he drank an unidentified poisonous substance.

He had since been admitted to a local hospital, where he was under police guard.

In a separate incident, a 35-year-old soldier allegedly stabbed a woman who had accused him of assault in the Atteridgeville Magistrate's Court on Wednesday.

"During the hearing, the uniformed military officer allegedly produced a sharp object and stabbed his fiancee a number of times on both the upper and lower body," Inspector Daniel Mavimbela said.

The 26-year-old Pretoria West woman was rushed to hospital in a serious condition.

Minster of Defence Charles Nqakula said he was alarmed by both incidents.

"Such allegations against the two members are extremely serious.

"The commissioning of such heinous crimes against defenceless woman by those who are supposed to protect and defend them, must be condemned," he said.

Nqakula said the unacceptable behaviour of a few individuals would not be allowed to tarnish the image of the SANDF.

"The department will do whatever it can to ensure that such individuals are rooted out from the defence force."


SOLDIER SHOOTS MOTHER-IN-LAW IN LIMPOPO

A 44-year-old soldier shot dead his 70-year-old mother-in-law, Anna Semenya, in the village of gaMabitsela, near Seshego, in the early hours on Thursday, said Limpopo police.

Superintendent Mohale Ramatseba said the soldier used a SA National Defence Force R4 rifle in the shooting at 2am.

He said the man was arrested for assault with intent to do grievous bodily harm on Sunday after beating his son with a pick handle. He had , accused his son of stealing at their home in Blood River-Moletji, near Seshego.

He was released on bail of R1000 after a brief appearance in the Seshego Magistrate's Court, which postponed the case.

However, he then started victimising his wife who first sought a court protection order then fled to her parents' home for refuge.

After fatally shooting Semenya, the man then shot at his wife, but missed, said Ramatseba.

He then went to his own parents' home where he drank an unidentified poisonous substance, said Ramatseba.

He had since been admitted to a local hospital, where he was under police guard.

As soon as he was discharged, he would face charges of murder and attempted murder, he said.

The SANDF could not immediately comment on the matter.


Defence Force to Have New Policy on HIV Soon

A DRAFT policy meant to eliminate unfair discrimination against HIV-positive soldiers is close to finality, and is to be presented to the cabinet for approval.

The new policy is expected to make SA's approach to HIV in the military among the most progressive in a sector where security concerns tend to overshadow all other considerations. But the matter remains controversial. Part of the argument is that matching up to constitutional principles may weaken the South African National Defence Force (SANDF).

HIV infection in the military is estimated at 22%-25%, about 3% above the national average. It is a bane among African armies as it upsets the command structure, increases operational costs and diverts funds from other crucial areas. Several African armies have banned the enlistment of HIV-positive personnel, according to Stellenbosch University defence analyst Lindy Heinecken and military lawyer Michelle Nel. Those who later tested positive in service were often restricted to certain tasks.

Heinecken felt the proposed new policy would have to be judged on its consequences, such as whether the SANDF would still be eligible for peace-keeping operations, especially alongside other armies with different policies. "Are individual rights more important than the effectiveness of the defence force in executing its mandate?" she asked.

The issue arose when the South African Security Forces Union (Sasfu) took the military to court on behalf of three applicants, including an HIV-positive prospective member and two serving soldiers.

They alleged discrimination in the military's recruitment and promotion policy, which also disqualified HIV-positive soldiers from foreign deployment -- a sought-after privilege that boosts earnings and advances careers.

In May the Pretoria High Court declared the SANDF's policy unconstitutional and ordered the military to produce a new guideline by November. S'khumbuzo Maphumulo, an attorney at the Aids Law Project (ALP) which represented Sasfu, said the ALP was subsequently invited to comment on the draft. "We consulted with our experts and clients and duly commented on the draft," he said.

This week defence department spokesman Sam Mkwanazi could say only that the matter was with the courts.

Delays were due to the state attorney's office not being able to take further instructions owing to the December holidays, said Maphumulo. "The state attorney will hopefully take instructions before the end of this month and revert to us so that the draft will be sent to cabinet for approval," he said.

Sasfu president Bhekinkosi Mvovo was upbeat about the proposed new policy. "It's better. It's a lot of changes which I would say are a victory to us."


More cash for SANDF military skills system

Minister of Defence Charles Nqakula has committed his ministry to investing more money and resources into the military skills development system (MSDS).

Yesterday, after seeing off nearly 300 South African Air Force recruits, he told reporters plans were afoot to expand the programme. “The programme helps deal with unemployment and pushes back the frontiers of poverty.

“We will divert people trained through this programme into certain economic sectors. The private and public sectors will benefit,” he said.

Nqakula told the 276 recruits at the SAAF Gymnasium that the country needed them and urged them to distinguish themselves as the cream of the crop.

Considering the high turnover of military members, Nqakula asked that once they qualify they should make decisions not based on self-interest, but on the interests of the country.

Ra-eed Ruiters (21), of Cape Town, was confident he would make the grade. “This is a dream come true. I want to be a master in protection and join the Special Forces to protect the likes of the President of the country. I am prepared for the hard work,” he said.

Minenhle Mtshali (18) said the air force provided her the opportunity to fulfil her aspirations to become a helicopter pilot. “But I have never flown in a helicopter, I am very nervous. My dad supports me. He thinks the experience will teach me independence.” Asked how she would overcome those nerves, she said: “With discipline, dedication and determination.”

Zandri van Rooyen (20), of Centurion, said she was following in her family’s footsteps, of which several members are currently, or were, members of the military. “Joining the military is in my blood.

“I want to be trained in human resources and then be deployed in Africa,” she said. She was not concerned by going into conflict zones.

“I think it will be exciting.”


Procurement, Interoperability Driving Growth in South African Defense

Looking forward from 2009 through 2013, South Africa appears poised to grow its defense budget. Since the mid-1990s, the nation has typically adopted a "sprint and fatigue" approach to defense spending in which two- to four-year periods dominated by rapid budget growth driven by major procurement programs are followed by a similar time period of relative stagnation as the military absorbs the costs of the previous years. From 2002 to 2007 such a cycle occurred; defense spending expanded from $2.4 billion in 2002 to $3.7 billion in 2005 and then waned from 2005 to 2007 - hovering in the $3.6 billion range. However, defense spending appears to be entering another growth cycle, as it will increase 8.2 percent from $3.6 billion in 2006/07 to over $4 billion by 2010/11.

This growth may not compare to that experienced from 2001 to 2005, at which time South Africa was financing its 1999 Strategic Defence Procurement Plan (SDPP) and was involved in numerous peacekeeping operations, but it is indicative of additional funding and renewed procurement in the coming years.

The upward trend in South African defense spending is engendered by a number of factors. Chief among these is the South African National Defence Force's decision that its next line of major procurement programs with coincide the wind down of the SDPP in 2010/11 so as to ensure the funding spigot remains open. Through 2008/09, less than 8 percent of SDPP costs - ZAR3.99 billion - were left to be paid.

The Army, which was largely left out of the initial SDPP, will be the primary beneficiary of increased future defense spending. Its funding is expected to increase from ZAR4.06 billion in 2006/07 to ZAR4.85 billion by 2009/10 as the service seeks to increase its overall end-strength while recapitalizing it aging force structure. Already the service has begun placing major orders, including the mid-2007 contract with Denel for 264 new infantry combat vehicles valued at $1.2 billion. Farther out, the SANDF has begun paying for additional major procurements, including the delivery of eight A400M transports after 2010. So as SDPP financing winds down, the value of its decline will be offset by additional spending for the next set of acquisitions.

The other major factors contributing to an overall increase in South African defense spending coincide with the internal reforms of the SANDF and its ability to absorb its new equipment. Seeking to transform itself into a leaner, more efficient force, the SANDF has been focused on promoting interoperability, otherwise known as "jointness," among its three service branches. Not surprisingly, funding for Joint Support increased from ZAR2.10 billion in 2003/04 to ZAR2.74 billion in 2006/07, and is projected to increase further to ZAR3.85 billion by 2009/10. As the SANDF attempts to improve its service interoperability, it will also have to iincur increased training costs for the array of new systems purchased under the SDPP. Combined, training-relate d expenditures of the three services will increase 54 percent

South African Army to Undergo Extensive Modernization

The South African Army is beginning the initial stages of a service-wide restructuring and modernization. Given the fact that the Army was largely left out of the Strategic Defense Procurement Program (SDPP), it is expected to be the focal point of major procurement activity in the coming decade. However, the Army will face the challenge of balancing existing operational commitments with the need to shift financial resources towards to transitioning into its new force structure.

The Army was allocated ZAR4.51 billion In 2008/09. This total represents a 6.8 percent increase over 2007/08; moreover, the Army's budget has increased at a compound annual growth rate of 7.3 percent since 2004/05. Not surprisingly the Army is the best funded -- albeit mostly cost to operate -- of all service branches of the SANDF.

Currently, the Army is dealing with a myriad of deployment commitments that sap its budget. It has 1,186 troops deployed to the Democratic Republic of Congo, Central African Republic, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Burundi, and Sudan in support of U.N. missions. In addition, the Army has a 620 troop contingent operating in Sudan under the auspice the African Union and has established a 5,000 troop strong brigade as the core of a rapid response force operated by the South African Development Community (SADC).

The operational requirements attached to these responsibilities are factored into the Army's short-term procurement focus. The acquisition of a UAV-based artillery targeting and C2 system; purchase of various mortar, grenades, and modern infantry small arms; and upgrades to 155m howitzers, Rooikat reconnaissance vehicles, and Olifant 2 main battle tanks are part of broader efforts to strengthen existing ground forces. These procurement and modernization programs are in part a response to the experiences the Army derived from the numerous peacekeeping and stability operations it has participated in over the past decade.

However, SANDF leadership has determined that the lessons learned from such operational experiences warrants a restructuring of the Army. In accordance with the Vision 2020 program, the Army will be redesigned to emphasize mobility, rapid deployment, modularity, and a shortened logistics tail -- all key elements of extended deployments. Under the Vision 2020 restructuring, the Army will consolidated into three functional commands (Land, Training, and Support), and structure existing forces in 10 separate brigades: one brigade for Contingency, Armor, and Mechanized Infantry, and seven Motorized Infantry brigades composed of regular and reservist units.

This pattern of consolidation is also apparent in procurement activity. Army procurement activity will be linked to five main programs over the coming years: Project Hoefyster, Project Guardian, Project Vistula, Project Sepula, and Project Warrior. Each of these procurement projects is targeted to provide the Army with a specific capability.

Project Hoefyster, which was announced as a tender with Patria in May 2007, is an ZAR8.8 billion plan to provide the Army with 264 modular fighting vehicles incorporating Denel components with deliveries slated from 2012-2024.

Project Guardian is a ZAR1.2 billion program to acquire a short-range tactical air defense system based on a mobile batter of 35 mm Anti-Air Guns integrated with upgraded Umkhoto-IR SAMS.

Project Vistula is a ZAR3.2 billion program to acquire 1,200 tactical logistics vehicles.

The latter two programs, Project Sepula and Project Warrior, have yet to be fully defined but are expected to be implemented. Project Sepula, is an ongoing tender for the replacement of older APCs with updated, modular systems. The RFP for the program is expected to be announced in April 2009. Project Warrior is a dismounted infantry modernization program dating back nearly a decade. It is likely to be replaced by a combination of new armaments and small arms for soldiers and introduction of a new Command, Control, and Communications (C3) system.


South Africa Defence and Security Report Q4 2008

The major internal security development in South Africa recently has been the outbreak of very serious anti-immigrant riots in a number of areas of the country. The wave of violence, much of which was concentrated in and around Gauteng province and the Johannesburg area, started on May 11 and over the rest of the month led to the death of 62 people, with hundreds injured, and tens of thousands displaced from shantytowns where they were living to new makeshift camps. This situation stabilised in June with South Africa Troops subsequently withdrawn from Johannesburg, Cape Town townships. Most internally displaced persons (IDPs) reportedly returned to neighbouring states and on June 12 the government announced plan to reintegrate some 20,000 remaining IDPs before closing camps in two months.

However, at the heart of the problem lies the large influx of immigrants from neighbouring countries, especially from Zimbabwe, and observers have said that the political and economic crisis within Zimbabwe has been so acute that the flow of emigrants leaving that country did not appear to have diminished. Although many immigrants have considered returning to their home countries, a further escalation in Zimbabwe's political crisis could trigger a new wave of refugees entering South Africa, which could lead to a worsening in unemployment and increase competition for local resources. We therefore believe that the recent outbreak of violence in South Africa could significantly harden the ruling African National Congress (ANC)'s stance towards Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe. While military action is not a policy option, the South African government could opt for economic sanctions to put pressure on the Zimbabwean authorities. That said, possible political repercussions from intervention and Zimbabwe's status as a historic long-term ally could prevent the South African government from taking any decisive action at all.

In our view, a further likely deterioration of the domestic growth outlook and surging inflationary pressures add another dimension of risk to social stability. Indeed, while we forecast that real GDP growth will decelerate by two percentage points to 3.1% in 2008 (thus increasing the risk of job losses), we expect headline inflation to remain relatively high in 2008 and ease to 8.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) at the end of the year, down from an expected peak at around 12.0% in Q308 (as projected by the South African Reserve Bank, SARB). Although declining, it is noteworthy that the decrease in inflation will be mainly due to base effects during the latter half of H208 and not because of underlying disinflationary trends. As a result, the burden of inflation will be maintained on consumers and is therefore likely to continue to weigh on social stability.

Aside from violence and deteriorating economic conditions, we believe that the ongoing internal divisions within the ANC will also fuel political uncertainty and will remain a risk to policy continuity for quite some time. In September 2008 Thabo Mbeki was forced to resign, and was replaced as interim president by Kgalema Molanthe. Rightly or wrongly, Mbeki has been accused of providing insufficient leadership to the ANC and the country as a whole, facing severe criticism over his government's inability to prevent the attacks on foreigners and over his allegedly ineffective 'silent diplomacy' strategy in Zimbabwe. With presidential elections due in 2009, Jacob Zuma therefore remains the current favourite to win, having received the backing of the ruling ANC at its annual conference in late 2007. While the power struggle between Mbeki and Zuma will likely have taken a toll on South African politics, we believe that the ANC is unwilling to give in to the growing demands made by the trade unions and the communist party. So while we believe that South Africa is far off from surrendering its market economy to a centralised planning model, the differences nevertheless depict the ideological gap between the ANC and COSATU and SACP, could give rise to further rifts in the future.

Internally, South Africa faces the daunting challenges of an anti-immigrant xenophobia, well-established organised crime and drug trafficking networks, vast wealth disparities, and high levels of HIV infection within its population. Yet its security concerns also extend beyond its borders. Recent restructuring and moves to modernise the South African armed forces have created the best-equipped and most advanced military on the African Continent. As the hegemonic power, particularly in the southern Great Lakes region, it has a heavy involvement in the continent's trouble spots in terms of securityforces/peacekeeping deployments. While the numerous security threats in the region have the potential to destabilise South Africa on a variety of levels, the potential for its neighbours - particularly Zimbabwe - to destabilise it, economically and politically, is especially strong.

The defence industry witnessed major upheavals with the lifting of the arms embargoes on South Africa which led to increased competition from foreign companies. With the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) no longer a captive customer of the sector, companies have had to shed large sections of their workforce, leading to dwindling numbers. Recent procurement packages may be the first step in reversing this trend. However, arms imports should increase substantially with the delivery of the major weapons platforms recently ordered by the government, particularly with the recent normalisation of relations between the US and South Africa. The future of the South African defence industry depends on its successful breaking into international markets. Joint ventures (JVs) will aid the country in gaining a technological lead in key areas. Currently, the biggest single long-term problem within the defence industry is the lack of research and development (R&D), funding and policy. Arms exports are proving a more vital area of sales for South African defence companies, and should be the main catalyst for any growth in the industry. Encouraging figures from key defence companies seem to suggest that the defence industry is growing and making inroads into international export markets.


Affirmative action served you very well, Mr Lekota

Affirmative action is defined as a neo-apartheid system, a racial (black) domination of others – according to COPE president Mosiuoa Lekota.

However, its purpose was |to set right decades of economic and educational disempowerment suffered by the majority in our country.

It was to free the minds of the native South Africans whose abilities and God-given talents were stifled.

It was to encourage people to pursue their dreams and to realise their true potential, and Lekota himself is a beneficiary of affirmative action.

However, Lekota must be applauded for fooling white South Africans and the few who were present at its COPE inaugural conference into thinking that he cares about them.

He is power-driven, a disgrace to the struggle and liberation of a black people and a lifetime failure. Take a look at the SANDF!

I share the feeling that COPE is quite simply a black DA.


On frontline of country in chaos

South Africa’s keen young troops join mission to keep innocents alive in the nightmare of the DRC violence, writes Beauregard Tromp

While the country enjoys |the festive season thousands of young South Africans |in countries far from home, are making sure that the nightmares threatening fellow Africans daily are kept at bay.

By all accounts General Laurent Nkunda, self-appointed protector of the minority Tutsi people, is a suave, confident, eloquent man.

The tall, graceful man, often with silver-topped cane in hand, is also the main reason almost 200 000 people have been forced to flee their homes in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, and he has thrown the entire country into turmoil.

With a force of no more than 4 000 fighters, “mon general” has been able to keep the 20 000-strong Congolese national army at bay, and launched deadly attacks which saw his forces advance to the doorstep of the capital of north Kivu, Goma.

The reason? “The Congolese are soldiers by day, rebels by night,” offers a South African private in-between plotting his next move in a game of draughts, in which pieces consist of beer tops.

The FARDC, the Congolese national army, has gained infamy for their poor fighting spirit, often fleeing when confronted by Nkunda’s rebels.

And come night these same soldiers sent to protect the civilian population turn predator.

Fuelled by booze and marijuana they|go rampaging through refugee camps, pilfering anything of value. Earning as little as R100 per month they plead hunger as the reason for their depredations.

Enter Monuc, the UN peacekeeping mission that has been in the DRC for eight years to maintain the fragile peace.

And the troops straining to keep the innocents safe are Elizabeth from East London, Dumisani from Potchefstroom, and Lerato from Mafikeng.

The SA contingent consists of four companies, each of 158 troops, including reconnaissance, motorised and engineering troops.

The majority of the infantry troops are to be found on the frontline.

South Africa is among the few countries that sends its female soldiers to the frontlines, and this group has been no |different, with 35% of this contingent being women.

Earlier this year the UN got word that Nkunda’s forces were recruiting child |soldiers in the vicinity of Osso, west of Goma.

The South African troops were dispatched to investigate, and came under fire.

In accordance with their Chapter 6 mandate the South African UN troops returned fire, killing one of Nkunda’s men in the process.

Anywhere else in the world the firefight would be seen exactly as that, and the death a casualty of war.

In the DRC everything is infinitely more complicated, and the killing of a rebel soldier immediately raised the ire of the rebel top brass.

A pow-wow was arranged, the situation explained and after a joint investigation into the incident that would have made the Crime Scene Investigators proud, it was concluded that the South Africans came under fire and acted in self-defence.

“Here you have to not only be ready to fight but also to be politic,” said Colonel Nicholl, the South African contingent commander in Goma.

Around the base fresh-faced young soldiers mill about their tents, some using their precious airtime to call loved ones at home.

For most this is their first trip outside South Africa, and the anomalies they’ve encountered couldn’t be more startling.

“Hey, those guys were fighting there. They’re standing right in front of us. Here! Here! And you can do nothing. I even called my mum,” said one soldier of an encounter with rebels and government soldiers.

South Africa has troops stationed in eastern Congo, Burundi and the Central African Republic.

The soldiers are more than happy to receive a visit from the SANDF top brass, an annual trip arranged to take goodwill packages to the troops on the frontline.

“We are very glad to be here wiff (sic) you during this festival of season,” bellowed Sergeant-Major Van Rooyen to muffled laughter from the gathered company representatives along for the tour.

The soldiers beamed and listened attentively. They knew what he meant.

The soldiers each received a rechargeable lamp and headlamp, and the latest innovation by the military – a camouflaged Bible.

“Accept these Bibles that will be given to you with the understanding that with God on our side, nothing can stand against us,” said General Janse van Rensburg.

“South Africa was the first to enter Burundi, and South Africa will be the last to leave Burundi,” said Van Rensburg.

In Beni a wall pays homage to the 14 South Africans who had lost their lives in this foreign country.