FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT
RISK RATINGS Current Current Previous Previous
Rating Score Rating Score
Overall assessment C 43 C 43
Security risk C 46 C 46
Note: E=most risky; 100=most risky.
SUMMARY
Violent crime is a major problem, and remains a serious concern for businesses and individuals. South Africa heads a number of international cross-country comparisons of crime, such as the number of murders per capita. Much of the crime is gratuitous: victims are often shot during a simple robbery, with no apparent motive. Car-jacking is also a major concern both in urban areas and when driving between cities. The security industry in South Africa is well-developed, and many foreign firms employ sophisticated monitoring and alarm systems. Aside from crime, there are few other major security risks in the country. South Africa is not engaged in armed conflict with any of its neighbours, and has no active secessionist movements.
SCENARIOS
Executives fall victim to violent crime
V High likelihood; V High impact; Intensity =25
The crime rate in South Africa has risen to high levels in recent years, and violent crimes against both expatriates and local residents are a major problem. The crime problem is exacerbated by poverty levels which run along racial lines. Although the government has stepped up its efforts to improve the country’s security environment, which also includes international assistance, progress to date has been slow. Many in the police are inexperienced, poorly trained and corrupt; the institution itself cannot be relied upon to enforce the law adequately and to protect the public. As a result, expatriates are strongly advised to take the necessary security precautions at home and at work. For instance, the use of electric fences and gates, high walls, and installation of security alarms, which are directly connected to private security companies with their own rapid response teams, are some of the measures available to both expatriates and local residents. Other measures for residential properties include security gates that separate sleeping and living areas; burglars are thereby restricted to areas of a house with obvious material possessions to steal, limiting the chance of a violent encounter with residents. Some expatriates may wish to rent houses in a guarded compound, an increasingly attractive option. Businesses should consider using video surveillance systems to identify criminals.
Executives are subject to crime while using the country’s motorways
V High likelihood; V High impact; Intensity =25
Car-jackings in South Africa are common and doors should be locked at all times when driving. The motorways are favoured targets: drivers, especially in remote areas, should never stop at accidents, which are often staged to carry out robberies. Companies should advise staff of “no-go" areas in major towns. It is advisable not to stop at red lights at certain notorious road junctions late at night (consult with a local security agency for locations). Businesses and individuals may also wish to install remote tracking devices in cars. Companies should implement appropriate training programmes for their staff on how best to react in a robbery or a car hijacking, and on how to avoid confrontation and violence.
Government will do more to tackle crime and security
Moderate likelihood; Moderate impact; Intensity =9
Critics of the government's allegedly weak crime policies kept up the pressure in March with simultaneous anti-crime rallies in Johannesburg, Cape Town and Durban--led by the Victims in the Republic of South Africa (Virsa)--which attracted several thousand people, accompanied by the collection of a 200,000- signature (and rising) petition calling for firmer official action against insecurity. At the very least, it is positive that the government no longer views the crime debate as an irritant but as a serious policy issue. Citing overall crime statistics, Mr Mbeki pointed to steady improvement in crime levels, but closer analysis shows that violent crimes against the person have increased and official targets are nowhere near to being met. Both South Africans and foreign visitors are uneasy, with a recent tourism industry survey pointing to tens of thousands of potential visitors being deterred by the levels of crime. Unluckily for the president, his January comments coincided with the killing of several prominent people--including a famous historian, David Rattray (shot during an armed burglary) and, somewhat ironically, a leader of the Business Against Crime movement, Alan MacKenzie. These and other killings have sparked widespread shock. Moreover, the crime issue has expanded from being linked to the "white" racial group--after all, most victims of violent crime are black. Some data show that South Africa has the third-worst crime rate in the world, approximately 50 times worse than that of the UK and 13 times worse than that of the US. Mindful of the need to show a commitment to tackling crime in the build-up to the 2010 football World Cup, some progress is expected to be made, but will not be made overnight.
Mob attacks against immigrants dents business confidence
Low likelihood; Low impact; Intensity =4
The wave of violence that swept through South Africa's Gauteng townships in May left at least 42 people dead, more than 200 injured and approximately 15,000 homeless. The main victims of the attacks by violent mobs—which have been on a scale not seen for many years—were poor Zimbabweans, whose numbers have swelled enormously owing to the ongoing political crisis in Zimbabwe, although a number of other African nationalities have also been affected. The Mozambican authorities, for example, estimate that more than 10,000 of their citizens fled the violence in just one week. The root causes of the problems are clear enough. There are probably more than more than 3m immigrants—and this is putting pressure on already scarce housing, jobs and public services, especially as immigrants are often prepared to accept lower wages than local workers. The escalation in food prices is compounding the problem. Immigrants are also being blamed for rising crime and insecurity, and a range of other social ills. The attacks have been largely indiscriminate: they have affected both legal and illegal migrants, and long- and short-term residents alike. The scale and speed of the violence shocked business, especially as the troubles spread (temporarily) to the central district in Johannesburg, where some streets were barricaded and shops looted. For the moment, the security forces have managed to defuse the situation and prevented the crisis from spreading to other parts of the country. Companies are advised to avoid potentially "problem" areas. For instance, Durban and wider KwaZulu/Natal, which has a large ethnic Indian population, is particularly vulnerable to a new wave of communal strife, although the only targets to date have been other black Africans.
BACKGROUND
(Updated: May 16th, 2008)
Armed Conflict
There is currently little prospect of an external threat to South Africa's security. The challenge for the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) in recent years has been to integrate the former liberation movements while reducing its own manpower. As there is no foreign threat to South Africa, the future role of the SANDF is likely to be restricted to regional peacekeeping and emergency relief operations.
Terrorism
There are a number of militant Islamic groups in the Western Cape, including Qibla and an affiliate of PAGAD, Muslims against Illegitimate Leaders, some of which are reported to have links with Osama bin Laden's al-Qaida international terrorist network. However, no incidents have occurred since the terrorist attacks in the US on September 11th 2001.
Civil Unrest
Political violence has decreased sharply. Most of the political violence of recent years has been in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng, where conflict between the African National Congress (ANC) and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) has claimed the lives of 14,000-20,000 people since 1984. There are still sporadic outbursts of political violence in KwaZulu-Natal, but these are quickly controlled.
Street Crime
More than 300 murders and violent attacks take place daily in South Africa, making it, along with Iraq and Colombia, one of the three most dangerous countries in the world. Economic and social tensions are responsible for a high level of criminal violence in South Africa. Crime in Gauteng has adversely affected businesses, which have steadily moved away from Johannesburg's central business district into well-to-do suburbs such as Sandton. Organised business funds a body called Business Against Crime, which monitors and assists in combating crime at the local level. The high level of crime is perceived to be one of the obstacles to economic growth; however, studies of foreign investors' attitudes to crime present a mixed picture.
Crime in the Western Cape has centred mainly in the poorer Cape Flats region, which has been plagued by organised and armed gangs. A study by the World Health Organisation in 1995 showed that South Africa had one of the highest murder rates in the world, although this has declined recently. According to the 2003 edition of the Small Arms Survey, a report by a Geneva-based organisation, about 30m small arms are in circulation in Sub-Saharan Africa (one weapon for every 20 people). Rates of rape, robbery, hijacking and burglary are also extremely high, although kidnapping and extortion are rare. A sign that the government is not being complacent about crime is the increase in real terms of budget allocations: safety and security spending is earmarked to rise from R41m (US$6.7bn) for fiscal year 2005/06 (April-March) to R46.6bn. Although police statistics have become a political football, the official figures are corroborated by independent studies conducted by the Institute of Security Studies and the South African Insurance Association. According to claims submitted to insurance companies, crime increased between 1994 and 2002, stabilised in 2003 and decreased in 2004. The industry felt that generally there was a substantial improvement, but the Institute of Security Studies pointed out that certain types of crime (mainly sexual or aggravated assault) were normally under-reported.
The rate of politically motivated murder has fallen from the peak in 1993. Part of South Africa’s susceptibility to violence stems from the historical legacy of apartheid and the violent society that this created, as well as the high level of gun ownership. It also reflects the fact that crimes can be committed with a degree of impunity, as the chances of being caught are low. In addition, South Africa has one of the most unequal distributions of income in the world; on the one hand, it has the affluence and sophistication of gleaming shopping centres and, on the other, levels of poverty associated with developing countries.
Such inequality is an important factor behind crime in the new South Africa. So too are the rapid influx of people into urban areas since the early 1990s (including people from neighbouring countries), the high level of unemployment and the difficult transformation taking place in the police service and the criminal justice system. The challenges facing the 130,000-strong South African Police Service are formidable, and it is not uncommon for businesses and residents in more affluent suburbs to employ private armed security firms.
Drug Smuggling and Organised Crime
The opening up of South Africa to the global economy has caused an increase in the activities of domestic and international crime syndicates. Even though elite special forces (the Scorpions) have been created and have operated successfully in areas such as the Western Cape, the underlying tensions and constraints are difficult to resolve, and crime is unlikely to fall dramatically in the near future. There was a spate of bombings in Cape Town in 1999-2000, attributed to a vigilante group, People Against Gangsterism and Drugs (PAGAD), which was formed in response to the ineffectual policing of crime in the Cape Flats by the official authorities. However, PAGAD itself became involved in criminal activities and acts of criminal violence. The arrest of most of the leaders of the group put an end to its activities.