South African military risks "becoming hollow force" - analyst
Two years ago it was becoming quite clear that South Africa's enthusiasm for taking part in African peace support operations was outrunning its capacity - that the SANDF [South African National Defence Force] was facing serious "overstretch".
Today the situation has worsened, and the national defence force faces a very real danger of becoming a "hollow force", a force that has all the trappings but lacks the ability to conduct sustained operations.
South Africa has battalion groups, or the equivalent, in Burundi and the Democratic Republic of Congo a reinforced company group in Sudan's Darfur region; specialized support elements and a training team in the DRCongo; and staff officers serving with the African Union [AU] and United Nations missions in Ethiopia and Eritrea, and with the UN mission in Liberia. In addition, the government has agreed to be one of four countries to provide troops for an envisaged 10,000-strong force that the AU hopes to deploy in the eastern DRCongo to finally clear out the Rwandan guerrillas that are based there.
There are also rumours that South Africa has agreed to expand its force in Darfur to a full battalion, and the president has promised to provide training and other personnel in the Cote d'Ivoire.
That is all in line with the government's commitment to Africa and Nepad (the New Partnership for Africa's Development), and it all makes perfect sense: South Africa needs a stable and secure environment, which cannot be achieved or maintained without military commitment.
As the largest economic power in Africa, it is clearly also up to South Africa to make at the very least a commensurate contribution to that military commitment. The problem is that we are attempting to make that commitment without providing our armed forces with the funding they need for the purpose. The key issue here is that while the defence force's operational commitments have steadily expanded since 1998, its operating budget has steadily declined in real terms over the same period. That is a formula for failure.
Far worse, every new operational commitment has seen the SANDF forced to meet the initial cost out of its current budget, as additional funds are only voted later. That money cannot be taken out of salaries, nor can equipment contracts be cancelled, so money is taken from training, from maintenance or from the already inadequate research and development budget. Each time that happens, it creates a hole that is never filled.
Even the partial reimbursement from the United Nations - the African Union cannot afford to reimburse - is just that, a reimbursement: first there is a hole to fill, then, at some time in the future, a portion of that money is reimbursed and may find its way to the armed forces - if the Treasury does not squirrel it away in its notorious B7 account, never to be seen again.
The result has been that for the better part of a decade, the SANDF has been unable to train properly, to maintain its equipment properly, or to maintain its infrastructure. The army, for instance, last ran a full brigade-level exercise a decade or so ago, while the air force and the navy lack the flying hours and sea days to be truly proficient in even their primary roles; and at the level of individuals there never seems to be quite enough money to present promotion courses for all of those who need to attend them.
Another major problem is that the SANDF does not have the personnel strength to be able to meet the demands of its current operational commitments without difficulty. It has been forced to deploy some of its personnel for six months in 18, and a few particularly unlucky ones for six months in 12. That does nothing for family life; means they cannot attend courses and therefore cannot be promoted; and means that proper unit training is almost impossible, causing operational capability to decline.
The result is, inevitably, that some members attempt to dodge deployments and others begin to look for other employment, causing the SANDF to lose critical expertise and experience that it cannot replace quickly. Other armed forces have been down this road and have learned the lessons. They try to keep the sustained deployment cycles of their operational units to about six months per three years.
The army suffers the most in this respect. Its lack of personnel strength results partly from a force design that is inadequate for the commitments, but also from the fact that too many in its junior ranks are over-age, unfit or ill and not deployable. They cannot, however, be shed because there is no workable "exit mechanism", and there is no money to recruit younger personnel in addition to them.
All of the services are also suffering from the usual drain of technical and other skilled personnel that all armed forces suffer in times of peace and economic growth.
Here it has been aggravated by affirmative action policies that have driven too many whites out of the armed forces and side-lined others - and their expertise and experience with them - before they could pass on to the new generation of officers what they learned in two or three decades of service. The bill for that will be presented in some future operation, when the lack of experience, in particular, will make itself felt at an inopportune moment.
While it is going too far to say that the SANDF is falling apart, it does find itself in an unsustainable situation that must be resolved lest it result in terminal decline.
The solution cannot be to cut back South Africa's regional security role. That would be to turn our back on our neighbours, apart from undermining the regional stability that South Africa needs for its own development. The solution also cannot lie in stopping the re-equipment of the armed forces. The SANDF must be re-equipped if it is to be credible and effective, and we owe it to our troops to provide them with the equipment that enables them to perform their duties.
The solution must, therefore, be to provide the force with the funding it needs to train, equip and maintain, and to conduct the operations assigned to it.
That will require a sustained expenditure of around 2 per cent of GDP, quite possibly with a small hike above that in the short term to undo the damage that has been done since 1990. It is also imperative that the government sets aside contingency funds to cover the first phases of future peace support operations, so that those can be launched without the armed forces having to disrupt training and maintenance to do so.
That is the bad news. The good news is that much of the additional funding would be spent inside South Africa, most of it on recruiting young people to give the army the strength it needs for its role.
-
31 Août 2005 à 13:30 dans
- zsandf (anglais)

