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Mon séjour en Afrique du Sud (Cape Town)

SOLDIER DROWNS IN BUJUMBURA SWIMMING POOL.

A South African soldier serving in Burundi drowned in a swimming pool at the Bujumbura military base on Saturday morning, the SA National Defence Force 9SANDF) said on Monday.

Rifleman Johannes Roberts, 29, and a colleague apparently went for a swim shortly after 1am, the SANF said in a statement. An investigation was underway to determine the cause of the drowning.

Roberts, a member of the 9 SA Infantry Battalion, was part of the SANDF contingent serving in Burundi. He is survived by his father by the same name from Graaff-Reinet.

Defence Secretary January Masilela and acting SANDF chief Vice Admiral Johan Retief extended their condolences to Roberts' family and friends.


South Africa risk: Political stability risk

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

RISK CATEGORY             Current   Current   Previous   Previous                             Rating    Score     Rating      Score  OVERALL ASSESSMENT           C         45         C         45  Political stability risk     C         55         C         55  Note: E= most risky; 100= most risky.  The risk ratings model is run once a month.   

 

SUMMARY

South Africa's political environment is stable. No major challenge to the position of President Thabo Mbeki is expected from within the ruling African National Congress (ANC). The overwhelming political dominance of the ANC is also unlikely to be threatened in the next few years. The main concern is that the absence of a strong opposition will allow the ANC to develop into a de-facto one party state. This, however, is unlikely, as South Africa still has a strong civil society that presses to challenge the actions of the government. Small-scale political protests over the next year cannot be discounted, however. These could arise from the slow pace of housing provision or general union agitation. The greatest threat to political stability in the next year could come from Zimbabwe: if the political tensions there spiral out of control, large numbers of refugees could flood across the border into South Africa.

 (Suite)

South Africa risk: Security risk

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

RISK CATEGORY             Current   Current   Previous   Previous                             Rating    Score     Rating      Score  OVERALL ASSESSMENT           C         45         C         45  Security risk                C         46         C         46  Note: E= most risky; 100= most risky.  The risk ratings model is run once a month.   

 

SUMMARY

Violent crime is a major problem, and a serious concern for business. South Africa heads many international cross-country comparisons of crime, such as the number of murders per capita. Much of the crime is gratuitous: victims are often shot during a simple robbery, with no apparent motive. Car-jacking is also a major concern both in urban areas and when driving between cities. The security industry in South Africa is well-developed, and many foreign firms employ sophisticated monitoring and alarm systems. Aside from crime, there are few other major security risks in the country. South Africa is not engaged in armed conflict with any of its neighbours, and has no active secessionist movements.

 (Suite)

COUPLE MURDERED ON POLOKWANE FARM.

A couple who managed a farm about 20km outside Polokwane on the road to Louis Trichardt were found murdered early on Tuesday morning, Limpopo police said.

Senior Superintendent Motlafela Mojapelo said the bodies of Johan van Dyk, 58, and his wife Christina, 54, were found on the farm Kareebosch, which they had been managing for the owner, Gert Fourie.

Fourie told police he was holidaying at a resort when the couple were attacked. He spoke to Johan van Dyk by telephone around 4pm on Monday.

An hour later he phoned again but could get no reply. When there was still no reply on Tuesday morning, he sent his younger brother, Christo Fourie, to investigate.

Christo found Christina van Dyk's body outside the house. She had been beaten to death with a hammer and a wheel spanner. Johan van Dyk's body was found at the houses of the farm labourers. He had also been beaten to death.

There were only two labourers on the farm at the time, said Mojapelo, and it was not clear where they had been when the Van Dyks were attacked.

A safe was missing from the house. Another safe had been broken open, but it was not clear whether anything had been taken. A Jeep that had been stolen from the farm was later found on the Duivelskloof road.

Police had launched a large manhunt, said Mojapelo, and were being assisted by trackers, police dogs and the SANDF.


South Africa's Hosting of the WSSD.

 The decision by the United Nations (UN) to award South Africa the rights to play host to one its largest gatherings, the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD), displayed the kind of confidence and conviction that the international community holds for the country.

After all, the country had just been readmitted into the international pitch and had just enjoyed a mere ten years of action.

Critics were fuming and doubting Thomases were working around the clock trying to convince the UN that South Africa was not ready to host one of the biggest events in the UN's calendar.

However, having hosted high profile events such as the Rugby World Cup, the African Cup of Nations, the Non-Aligned Movement, World Conference Against Racism and the African Union, South Africa had to prove its mettle to the world through various aspects interrelated to the hosting of events of such magnitude.

Logistical and security issues were at the top of the agenda.

In an endeavour to stage an incident-free Summit that would linger in the minds of many for generations to come, government instituted a logistical company known as the Johannesburg World Summit Company (Jowsco) under the captaincy of former SA Tourism head Moss Mashishi.

The company's primary task was clear: to put together a comprehensive logistically rigid event.

'We want the logistical part of the summit to be as smooth as possible so that no one complains about anything,' ordered foreign affairs minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma during one of her inspections on the venues.

In response, Jowsco put together a sophisticated transportation system, well coordinated accommodation arrangements and readily available and well-mannered volunteers, who ensured that everything from parking to directions to ushering went smoothly.

Representatives of nearly 200 countries with widely divergent positions, including civil society organisations, converged in Johannesburg and during their two-week stay, grappled with complex and difficult issues.

Thus, it was imperative that they deliberated crucial issues in a safe and secured environment that allowed space for freedom of movement, speech and expression.

As a result, eight thousand extra police officers were dispatched to Johannesburg to boost security; every Summit site was 'swept' in careful security checks and there were regular roadblocks, spot checks and increased policing across Johannesburg, Pretoria, Midrand and Soweto.

The handpicked police officers from every province, had received extra training in diplomacy, weaponry and security skills upgrading.

The security personnel comprised the South African Police Service (SAPS), the South African National Defence Force (SANDF), Tshwane and the Johannesburg Metro Police, the intelligence community and other security agencies.

To put into practice what is inscribed in the country's constitution with regard to freedom of expression, the security personnel displayed what many regarded as a professional conduct that best suited any credible democracy, through their handling of marches and demonstrations that took place during the Summit.

A number of non-governmental organisations marched to the Summit venue to voice their concerns, and police managed to control the crowds with no major incidents reported.

In the process, the security personnel, particularly the intelligence services, intercepted plans by rightwing elements to set off explosives at the Sandton Convention Centre-one of the venues that played host to the Summit.

With delegates experiencing a safe and secure atmosphere it was time for critical issues to come under the hammer. And, as a result a number of issues were agreed upon and a number of partnerships entered into.

Some issues were, however, deadlocked. But, such is the nature of negotiations-premised on the give and take principle.

The agreements reached in Johannesburg set minimum tasks for all governments and people in building a better world.

They were a guide to action that will take forward the UN Millennium Summit Declaration's goal of halving world poverty by 2015, and decisions of world bodies since the Rio Earth Summit 10 years ago.

Some of the major outcomes of the Summit include the halving, by 2015, of the number of people without basic sanitation. Last year the world's leaders agreed to halve the number without access to safe drinking water by 2015. Biodiversity loss is to be reversed by 2010 and collapsed fish stocks restored by 2015, chemicals with detrimental health impact will be phased out by 2020 and the extension of energy services to 35 percent of African households over the next ten years.

In terms of energy and water, South Africa had already made major strides in the provision of the two.

In terms of electricity, over the eight-year period from January 1994 to December 2001, a total of 3.47 million households were connected to the national electricity grid at a cost of R9.9-billion.

This included free basic electricity amounting to 30 kWh per legally connected household per month.

On water, in 2001 almost 7 million people, from the 14 million that had no access in 1994, were receiving clean water including 600 kilolitres of free basic water.

Clearly these feats meant that South Africa had already made headway in implementing some the agreements entered into at the Summit. And this meant one thing: Out of Africa and out of Jo'burg a new agenda for practical action had emerged.

South Africa was lauded internationally for hosting a successful event-free Summit.

'I have never seen a summit as well organised as this one...despite its size,' proclaimed WSSD secretary-general Nitin Desai.

The hosting of the event affirmed the country's status as a progressing state that had defied all the odds to be perceived as a model country for other developing nations.

This, coupled with other accomplishment such as President Mbeki's address at the recent UN General Assembly held in New York in the United States (US), put the country firmly on its way to international recognition and respect. -


Endangered species?

Endangered species? THE Rooivalk attack helicopter is a classic apartheid era weapon designed for a different age and a different kind of military threat. The helicopter was designed to destroy tank or armoured vehicles, as well as surveillance and intelligence in a "bush war" situation. It was designed partly because ground-based antiaircraft missile technology was developing so fast that the effectiveness of fighter aircraft was being blunted. Thus, some way had to be found to fly low, creep under radar and render missile technology less effective.

Had the cold war and Apartheid continued, there is no doubt the Rooivalk would have made a substantial contribution to the SA military arsenal. Thankfully, neither did.

Consequently the new SA government was left with a substantial cost and design legacy that it is understandably reluctant to simply write off entirely. In an endeavour to try and recoup the costs, Denel Aviation has been trying to sell the helicopter around the world, without success.

This is partly because the competition in this sector of the market is very tight, with many US allies often preferring the long-serving Apache or the more up to date Viper, while the Europeans have preferred the German-French Tiger.

The applications for such an aircraft are also too often eclipsed by other strategic priorities, particularly as the aircraft is so expensive for the fire power it provides.

The SA National Defence Force (SANDF) was due to buy several, a development which might have helped the export drive. Denel often complained that foreign buyers were reluctant to buy a weapon not seen as worthy of being included in the air force of the selling country.

The purchase by the SANDF of the helicopter was delayed by the defence review, which ultimately placed emphasis on a "light mobile strategy" that would enable the SANDF to deploy far more military power by air.

The Rooivalk more or less fits with this strategy, and hence cabinet has given the SANDF the green light to buy 12 of the helicopters.

Clearly, this constitutes something of a rescue mission for an aircraft now seen as quite old. Government's dilemma is that it wants to see some kind of return for all the expense.

However, it remains an open question whether the Rooivalk is not a solution looking for a problem. Sometimes it is better to admit defeat quickly rather than risk a long, drawn-out battle.


JOINT OPERATIONS NET ILLEGAL ALIENS, SUSPECTED CRIMINALS.

A total of 5709 illegal aliens and 985 suspected criminals were arrested in joint operations with the SA Police Service in November, the SA National Defence Force said on Tuesday.

Troops and police confiscated 191 illegal weapons, 7541kg of dagga and 134 Mandrax tablets.

The operations also resulted in the recovery of 74 stolen vehicles and 391 stolen livestock.

"These successes have dealt crime a serious blow," the SANDF said.


JOINT OPERATIONS NET ILLEGAL ALIENS, SUSPECTED CRIMINALS.

A total of 5709 illegal aliens and 985 suspected criminals were arrested in joint operations with the SA Police Service in November, the SA National Defence Force said on Tuesday.

Troops and police confiscated 191 illegal weapons, 7541kg of dagga and 134 Mandrax tablets.

The operations also resulted in the recovery of 74 stolen vehicles and 391 stolen livestock.

"These successes have dealt crime a serious blow," the SANDF said.


JOINT OPERATIONS NET ILLEGAL ALIENS, SUSPECTED CRIMINALS.

A total of 5709 illegal aliens and 985 suspected criminals were arrested in joint operations with the SA Police Service in November, the SA National Defence Force said on Tuesday.

Troops and police confiscated 191 illegal weapons, 7541kg of dagga and 134 Mandrax tablets.

The operations also resulted in the recovery of 74 stolen vehicles and 391 stolen livestock.

"These successes have dealt crime a serious blow," the SANDF said.


State opts for neutrality in apartheid case.

State opts for neutrality in apartheid case Cabinet clarifies stance on litigation Political Editor GOVERNMENT has moved to clarify its position on the apartheid lawsuits lodged by SA citizens against multinationals, amid growing concerns by international companies and locals that the case had the potential to discourage foreign investment from coming into the country.

This was one of the announcements by government following a cabinet meeting that also approved the commissioning of 12 Rooivalk combat support helicopters for use by the SA National Defence Force (SANDF). The move had been interpreted as a rescue mission considering a lack of success in selling the combat helicopter in international markets. Government chief spokesman Joel Netshitenzhe said the programme represented significant levels of technology and expertise, and SA was one out of five counties in the world developing combat helicopters of this nature. The cabinet also congratulated Deputy President Jacob Zuma for the active role he was playing in the peace talks in Burundi, which had registered progress.

Ministers approved the extension of SANDF participation in the Burundi peace process by six months to June and that of 12 military personnel in the United Nations and African Union missions in Ethiopia and Eritrea by 16 months to March 2004. Commenting on reparations, Netshitenzhe said government neither supported nor opposed international litigation against multinationals. He said yesterday that while the cabinet had during its Wednesday meeting reiterated its recognition of the right of all citizens to undertake legal action on any matter, the "government however, was not party to this litigation". The position was adopted following questions from the SA public and international companies about the government's stance on the litigation against multinationals which operated in SA during apartheid.

Netshitenzhe said government's approach to the issue of reparations would be finalised, hopefully next year after the truth commission submitted the codicil to its final report. The matter had been delayed after a court action launched by Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) leader Mangosuthu Buthelezi to protect his reputation. In its interim report, the commission had found that the IFP was the "primary nonstate perpetrator responsible for approximately 33% of all the violations reported to the commission". Buthelezi spent time contesting the content of the report on the grounds that the findings were not supported by evidence. "As soon as a final pronouncements has been made by the courts on this matter, cabinet would undertake consultations with various structures of civil society in order to finalise a national position on all matters pertaining to the truth commission," Netshitenzhe said in Pretoria.

He said government also emphasised the appeal made four years ago after the truth commission submitted that all South Africans should make a contribution to the reparations process "still stands".

He said an amount of R50m had been made to 18000 cases out of 18800 identified as urgent by the truth commission.

Netshitenzhe said although government acknowledged that reparations could not exclusively be confined to communities, individuals identified by the commission would need to benefit from some reparation on the basis of a permanent arrangement.


SA Air Force to buy the Rooivalk.

SA Air Force to buy the Rooivalk THE SA Air Force appears to be on track to become the first buyer of the SA-produced Rooivalk attack helicopter.

Government spokesman Joel Netshitenzhe said yesterday the cabinet had approved the commissioning of the Rooivalk for use by the SA National Defence Force (SANDF).

The Rooivalk - which has struggled to penetrate the international market - was reported earlier this year to have drained most of Denel's resources. Netshitenzhe said the Rooivalk's development had taken place over many years and most of the expenditure regarding its development had already been incurred. "In order to ensure full commissioning, there might be some additional costs, but those will be discussed between the SANDF and treasury," he said.


Despite Terrorism, Analyst Discounts "Right Wing" Coup in South Africa -

"Extreme right wingers" in South Africa may have a "well thought out plan," including terrorism, to return their country to white-minority rule, but it is unlikely they can succeed against the multi-racial democracy most South Africans, both black and white, now willingly support, says visiting defense scholar Henri Boshoff. Boshoff, a recently retired colonel who served in the South African military for 22 years, is an analyst for South Africa's Institute for Security Studies (ISS). While here to attend the annual meeting of the scholarly African Studies Association (ASA), he briefed Africanists at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on December 6 about the chances of a white-led coup in his homeland.

The recent spate of bombings in predominantly black neighborhoods demonstrates the "capacity of the extreme right wing" to commit violence, Boshoff said. But their ability "to execute a plan" to take over the government, while "not laughable" is "virtually impossible," he asserted, because of the lack of support from the larger white community and institutions like the nation's armed forces.

In South Africa, he said, "What we see now is a whole idea of the restoration of the Boer Republic coming to the fore" among "a small group of hardcore radicals," many of whom "see themselves as God's chosen people[degrees]and believe the Black Man has no soul." Their political ideology harkens back to the early 20th century, he explained, when the Boer republics of the Orange Free State and the Transvaal believed "self-determination of the white race" meant political disenfranchisement of Blacks.

Many of those ideas are now enshrined in a movement, called the "Boeremag" [literally farmers' force], Boshoff said, whose adherents are alleged to have murdered a number of blacks recently. Eighteen whites, among them middle class professionals, have been arrested and charged with complicity in the crimes. Weapons caches have also been uncovered, he added.

Boshoff cited a Boeremag plan, called "Document 12," which is a guide for "a counter-military offensive" that spells out several tactical phases leading to the eventual overthrow of South Africa's democratically-elected government. It even includes use of the "Odal Rune," an Aryan sign that the coup plotters would print up and stick on government vehicles they seized for identification once the coup began.

While "well thought out," Boshoff said he believed Boeremag's plan would fail because of a number of "preconditions that are absent" for mounting a successful coup. "Firstly, they haven't got a high level of political support" among whites; even "people affiliated with the right wing say they do not want to be associated" with Boeremag's extreme views but "want to work within the political system."

On a military level, Boeremag "will also not be able to mobilize massively," the analyst said, "because they do not have support within the SANDF [South African National Defense Forces]. Although three SANDF members were arrested... there is no support within the SANDF officer corps."

In addition, he pointed out, "If they [Boeremag] want to overthrow the government they must secure control of strategic installations and that is virtually impossible, especially with their low force-to-space ratio. [In South Africa] Political power is now very much decentralized. There is a very sophisticated infrastructure and effective security forces, so it is impossible for them to do that."

The real danger, Boshoff said, is "the small-level groups or cells that have access to weapons and who can operate on a tactical, local level to destabilize" society with acts of violence. To counter them the security forces must take "an integrated... proactive approach" that uses local police forces, employing intelligence with real information sharing.

As for the public, Boshoff said the message that the security forces should put out is: "We can deal with it [Boeremag violence]. We can discourage it. But we cannot end it completely, anymore that we can end other types of non-political violence." Ultimately, what will contain the spread of poison from "small groups of isolated fanatics is good intelligence work and law enforcement" based on the public's cooperation.


Cabinet Confirms Commissioning of Fighter Aircraft.

 At its final sitting of the year in Pretoria this week, Cabinet confirmed the commissioning of the country's fighter attack helicopter, the Rooivalk.

Chief government spokesperson Joel Netshitenzhe announced at a post-Cabinet media briefing in Pretoria yesterday that Cabinet had confirmed the commissioning of the Rooivalk Combat Support Helicopter into the South African National Defence Force (SANDF).

Cabinet explained that the helicopter programme represented significant levels of government's industrial and innovation expertise commensurate with world-class technology.

'South Africa is one of five countries in the world that produces a dedicated combat helicopter,' he said.

The helicopter was designed and built for hot and high conditions in southern Africa and has international appeal, due to its ideal nature for semi-desert areas, like the Middle East.

It carries a comprehensive range of weaponry selected for the mission requirement, ranging from anti-armour and anti-helicopter missions to ground suppression and ferry missions.

It can also engage multiple targets at short and long range, utilising the nose-mounted cannon and a range of underwing-mounted munitions.

'This capability will stand the SANDF in good stead both in securing the country and in peacekeeping missions,' Mr Netshitenzhe affirmed.


State Opts for Neutrality in Apartheid Case Cabinet clarifies stance on litigation.

Government has moved to clarify its position on the apartheid lawsuits lodged by SA citizens against multinationals, amid growing concerns by international companies and locals that the case had the potential to discourage foreign investment from coming into the country.

This was one of the announcements by government following a cabinet meeting that also approved the commissioning of 12 Rooivalk combat support helicopters for use by the SA National Defence Force (SANDF).

The move had been interpreted as a rescue mission considering a lack of success in selling the combat helicopter in international markets.

Government chief spokesman Joel Netshitenzhe said the programme represented significant levels of technology and expertise, and SA was one out of five counties in the world developing combat helicopters of this nature.

The cabinet also congratulated Deputy President Jacob Zuma for the active role he was playing in the peace talks in Burundi, which had registered progress.

Ministers approved the extension of SANDF participation in the Burundi peace process by six months to June and that of 12 military personnel in the United Nations and African Union missions in Ethiopia and Eritrea by 16 months to March 2004.

Commenting on reparations, Netshitenzhe said government neither supported nor opposed international litigation against multinationals.

He said yesterday that while the cabinet had during its Wednesday meeting reiterated its recognition of the right of all citizens to undertake legal action on any matter, the "government however, was not party to this litigation". The position was adopted following questions from the SA public and international companies about the government's stance on the litigation against multinationals which operated in SA during apartheid.

Netshitenzhe said government's approach to the issue of reparations would be finalised, hopefully next year after the truth commission submitted the codicil to its final report.

The matter had been delayed after a court action launched by Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) leader Mangosuthu Buthelezi to protect his reputation.

In its interim report, the commission had found that the IFP was the "primary nonstate perpetrator responsible for approximately 33% of all the violations reported to the commission".

Buthelezi spent time contesting the content of the report on the grounds that the findings were not supported by evidence.

"As soon as a final pronouncements has been made by the courts on this matter, cabinet would undertake consultations with various structures of civil society in order to finalise a national position on all matters pertaining to the truth commission," Netshitenzhe said in Pretoria.

He said government also emphasised the appeal made four years ago after the truth commission submitted that all South Africans should make a contribution to the reparations process "still stands".

He said an amount of R50m had been made to 18000 cases out of 18800 identified as urgent by the truth commission.

Netshitenzhe said although government acknowledged that reparations could not exclusively be confined to communities, individuals identified by the commission would need to benefit from some reparation on the basis of a permanent arrangement.


SOLDIER DIES AFTER NIGHT-FLYING EXERCISE.

An SA Air Force sergeant-major died of injuries sustained after a night-flying exercise in Limpopo on Thursday night, the SA National Defence Force reported.

He was Warrant Officer Class 2 Jan Jerling, 36, of Pretoria, the SANDF said in a statement on Friday.

Information about the incident, which happened after a night-flying exercise near Alldays airfield, was sketchy.

"WO2 Jerling formed part of the duty crew onboard a C-208 Caravan aircraft from 41 Squadron. On completion of the training exercise, while recovering the portable lighting system used for night landings, WO2 Jerling was fatally injured."

SANDF spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Louis Kirstein told Sapa he could not give more details about the cause of death. This would be determined by a board of inquiry, he said.

Jerling was survived by his wife and a son.


GUARDS POSE AS SOLDIERS, ABUSE FARMWORKERS, SAHRC HEARS.

Security firm employees recently posed as army commandos and abused farm workers, an inquiry into human rights violations in the farming community heard on Friday.

Even though these incidents were isolated, they created negative public perceptions about the army, Colonel Barry Schoeman, senior staff officer of the chief of joint operations of the SA National Defence Force, told the SA Human Rights Commission's public hearings in Pretoria.

"We have specifically made a lot of effort in probing complaints in this regard because it is illegal for a civilian to wear an SANDF uniform."

Major-General Derrick Mgwedi, officer commanding of the infantry formation, said that ever since the old brown army uniforms were exchanged for the camouflaged ones, no member of the public was allowed to wear anything resembling the new one.

"The defence department has recommended that if anyone is seen wearing the uniform they should be prosecuted."

Schoeman said he knew of two cases in KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga where security firms were seen wearing army uniforms and abusing workers.

Two years ago he investigated a matter in the Drakensberg where the rural community accused the army of abuse after people were seen driving through the area in armoured cars.

"What I found there is that these people were members of a security firm that had old police vehicles and gear. When we interviewed them they said they were on the farm acting on someone else's instruction to clear the area of illegal occupants."

Vice-Admiral Martyn Trainor said about 26 crime incidents involving 49 junior and senior soldiers were heard in the courts between 1997 and 2002.

These crimes occurred in the rural areas and the ranks of the soldiers ranged from sergeant, rifleman, corporal, second lieutenant, to major.

Trainor said three riflemen were found guilty of murder, assault, theft and housebreaking on April 9. Eleven were acquitted, charges against 24 were withdrawn and investigations against another 11 were incomplete.

Department of Home Affairs director Eugene Kritzinger told the commission that the exploitation of immigrants was rife on farms.

"Abuse in the form of poor working conditions, long working hours and low wages has been reported a lot on farms," he said.

Some farmers were accused of employing illegal immigrants and then refused to pay them, the commission heard.

Kritzinger said he did not have information of farmers who were prosecuted for employing aliens.

The public hearings finished on Friday.

Commission panellist Charlotte McClain said the commission would compile a report and present it to President Thabo Mbeki in March 2003.


South Africa risk: Political stability risk

RISK CATEGORY             Current   Current   Previous   Previous                             Rating    Score     Rating      Score  OVERALL ASSESSMENT           C         45         C         45  Political stability risk     C         55         C         55  Note: E= most risky; 100= most risky.  The risk ratings model is run once a month.   

 

SUMMARY

South Africa's political environment is stable. No major challenge to the position of President Thabo Mbeki is expected from within the ruling African National Congress (ANC). The overwhelming political dominance of the ANC is also unlikely to be threatened in the next few years. The main concern is that the absence of a strong opposition will allow the ANC to develop into a de-facto one party state. This, however, is unlikely, as South Africa still has a strong civil society that presses to challenge the actions of the government. Small-scale political protests over the next year cannot be discounted, however. These could arise from the slow pace of housing provision or general union agitation. The greatest threat to political stability in the next year could come from Zimbabwe: if the political tensions there spiral out of control, large numbers of refugees could flood across the border into South Africa.

 (Suite)

South Africa risk: Security risk

RISK CATEGORY             Current   Current   Previous   Previous                             Rating    Score     Rating      Score  OVERALL ASSESSMENT           C         45         C         45  Security risk                C         46         C         46  Note: E= most risky; 100= most risky.  The risk ratings model is run once a month.   

 

SUMMARY

Violent crime is a major problem, and a serious concern for business. South Africa heads many international cross-country comparisons of crime, such as the number of murders per capita. Much of the crime is gratuitous: victims are often shot during a simple robbery, with no apparent motive. Car-jacking is also a major concern both in urban areas and when driving between cities. The security industry in South Africa is well-developed, and many foreign firms employ sophisticated monitoring and alarm systems. Aside from crime, there are few other major security risks in the country. South Africa is not engaged in armed conflict with any of its neighbours, and has no active secessionist movements.

 (Suite)

South Africa - International relations and defence.

Mr-Mbeki's African Renaissance

The all-race general election in 1994 represented not just a transformation of domestic politics but a shift in South Africa's position internationally. At the regional level, economic and political co-operation is driven by Mr-Mbeki's vision of an "African Renaissance". South Africa actively engages with its African neighbours at both the political and commercial level, both bilaterally and as a member of regional bodies such as the African Union (previously known as the Organisation of African Unity) and the Southern African Development Community. However South Africa has to tread a fine line. There are mixed feelings among business people and politicians in Southern Africa about South Africa's dominant role in the region. These range from hopes that the neighbourhood giant will spark off a region-wide recovery, to fears that South Africa will steal a competitive march on the nascent industries of other countries. At a political level, South Africa has had to play a non-intrusive yet firm role to encourage the peaceful resolution of conflicts in Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mozambique, Rwanda and Burundi, and, most recently, Zimbabwe. The political crisis in Lesotho in September 1998, which prompted a South African military intervention to support the country's government, illustrated the difficulties that South Africa faces in establishing itself as a pivotal force in regional politics.

New Partnership for Africa's Development

The government won the approval of the Organisation of African Unity conference in Lusaka to present Mr-Mbeki's Millennium Africa Plan (MAP) to the G8 summit in Genoa in July 2001. Although driven forward by Mr-Mbeki, the MAP was strongly supported by the presidents of Algeria and Nigeria. The MAP was then merged with the Omega Plan-which was put forward by the Senegalese president, Abdoulaye Wade-and presented in Genoa. It was agreed there that a high-level liaison officer would be appointed to work with committed African leaders to develop a concrete plan of action to be presented to the G8 summit in Canada in 2002. The plan has been renamed the New Partnership for Africa's Development (Nepad). It received overwhelming support at the G8 summit in 2002, where the group detailed an Africa Plan of Action that commits G8 countries to assisting the promotion of Nepad.

Nepad argues that Africa needs to involve itself much more closely in the global economy. To do this it needs to implement a series of reforms, which will be supported by the G8 through a combination of external debt relief and improved trade access to the developed world. Increased financial aid is mentioned, but is deliberately downplayed to emphasise that the thinking behind the plan is that responsibility for the success of the plan lies with African leaders. The key reforms proposed by Nepad include:

the establishment of civil order and more democratic government; the prevention and reduction of conflict throughout Sub-Saharan Africa; greater respect for human rights; increased investment in human resources through health and education; policies aimed at diversifying African economies and boosting trade with the rest of the world; measures to enable Africa to adopt new technologies; and combating the range of diseases that afflict the continent, from AIDS to malaria.

A central idea of the plan is that although none of the above is a new idea or concept, African governments should not think of them as being imposed by donor governments, but as the basic rules of the new global economy. Not surprisingly, scepticism about Nepad abounds, particularly of the idea that it will be driven forward by peer pressure centred on clearly agreed timetables and targets drawn up by African governments. The idea that this will encourage many older, and essentially autocratic, African leaders-such as the presidents of Gabon, Kenya, Togo and Zimbabwe-to implement reform is probably fanciful. However, that should not consign the plan to failure. Mr-Mbeki has constantly stressed that, although his goals may be ambitious, there is still a strong moral obligation to push such ideas forward and strive to promote African development. Moreover, though many African governments may be recalcitrant, if some countries do adopt Nepad's prescriptions and start to grow rapidly, they will serve as a trailblazer for others to follow. African countries could then act in mutual support of each other, promote African issues on the global agenda and talk to other African leaders from a much stronger political and economic base. Promoting Nepad will be an important part of South Africa's foreign policy in the medium term.

Zimbabwe blights investment in the region

The political turmoil in Zimbabwe is a key foreign policy challenge for the ANC government as it continues to cast a shadow over the government's attempts to attract foreign direct investment inflows to South Africa and to the region. The efforts of South Africa and Nigeria to find a solution to the political impasse through negotiations between Robert-Mugabe's ruling party, the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), and the opposition, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), collapsed acrimoniously in May 2002. Nonetheless, neither Mr-Mbeki, nor the Nigerian president, Olusegun Obasanjo, has given up this approach. Worried that the lack of progress in Zimbabwe may lead the EU and US to withhold support for Nepad, they are keen for a breakthrough. However, it is unlikely that they will persuade either Mr-Mugabe or the leader of the MDC, Morgan Tsvangirai, to form a government of national unity, although there is a slight chance that they could eventually persuade Mr-Mugabe to moderate some of his more extreme policies.

South African National Defence Force

Since the end of apartheid the biggest challenge for South Africa's armed forces has been the integration of former members of the ANC's armed wing, Umkhonto we Sizwe (MK). This began slowly and has generated some resentment among MK cadres. An estimated 35,000 members of MK and other South African resistance movements-as well as 11,500 members from former homeland forces-were to be absorbed into the South African National Defence Force (SANDF), but only 28,000 were taken in, of whom only about half remain. The SANDF has nevertheless undergone a substantial transformation since 1994, and 70% of its soldiers are now black (African, coloured and Indian). However, more than 60% of senior officers are white, and the apparent disorganisation of SANDF troops when they entered Lesotho in September 1998 was attributed to a lack of cohesion in the army. The task of the chief of defence staff, General Siphiwe Nyanda, who was appointed in 1998, has been to accelerate transformation, maintain professionalism and renew antiquated equipment, despite much-reduced defence budgets. Although the army has received a controversial R30bn new weapons package, it has warned that budget cuts may force the closure of three air force bases, and that most of its units are at less than 50% readiness. The issue of HIV/AIDS in the army is also an increasing source of concern.

  Comparative military forces, 2002                                    South Zimbabwe Nigeria   Egypt Algeria                                   Africa Army                              40,250   32,000  62,000 320,000 120,000 Air force                          9,250    4,000   9,500  29,000  10,000 Navy                               5,000        0   7,000  19,000   6,700 Total                            150,689   36,000  78,500 443,000 136,700 Paramilitary forces                  n/a   21,800  82,000 330,000 181,200 Defence spending (US$ bn)            1.8      0.6     0.5     3.0     2.1 Source: International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance 2002/03. 

AIR FORCE PILOT'S CORPS BECOMING REPRESENTATIVE - BEUKES.

The SA Air Force's corps of pilots are becoming demographically representative of the general population, SAAF chief Lieutenant General Roelf Beukes said on Thursday.

Addressing the 100th air force "wings parade" since World War II at the Central Flying School (CFS) at Langebaanweg, north of Cape Town, Beukes told his audience they were seeing the results of steps taken two years ago.

"The Air Force Board decided two-and-a-half years ago that the training of our air force members would receive the highest priority, and today, we are starting to see the results, with well trained, representative, quality youngsters emerging from our training institutions," Beukes told the 23 new pilots on parade.

"Furthermore, the Air Force Board decided during January this year that the flying instructors at the CFS had to be more representative. Two African instructors qualified in September this year and are currently on the staff."

Beukes said the United Sates and Algerian air forces had also offered to train a number of pilots as instructors.

"Between now and June 2003, these pilots will return to South Africa, which will bring the complement of black flying instructors at CFS Langebaanweg to a total of nine, including the first ever African female flying instructor in the history of the air force."

Beukes said another innovative idea was the introduction of a parallel tracking concept in flying training.

"Last year a student encountered difficulty right at the end of his flying training programme and he was selected for this pilot project.

"This year he followed this programme and he qualified above 80 percent in all his advanced flying aspects, and he achieved 82 percent for his final wings test.

"Today, Second Lieutenant Tim Mokoena is with us on parade, and he is commended for his hard work and perseverance," Beukes told an audience that included several foreign defence attaches.

"It is initiatives like these that are proof of the fact that the air force is serious in its objective to become fully representative in the flying environment.

"The pilot wings course that starts in January 2003 is even more representative. Out of 25 candidates, 12 are African, two Asian, two coloured and nine white, with six of the 25 candidates being females."

The SAAF was recently severely criticised in an internal SA National Defence Force (SANDF) Inspector General's report for its apparent lack of commitment to transformation.

SAAF spokesman Major Hugo Weichs said it took two-and-a-half years to train a pilot to a basic level of proficiency.

The first three months consisted of basic training at the SAAF Gymnasium in Pretoria followed by another three months of officers' training at the SAAF College, also in Pretoria.

Next followed a year of theoretical and academic training at the SANDF's Military Academy at Saldanha, near Cape Town. Only the final year was actually spent learning to fly.

However, the training of pilots did not end once the pilots received their wings.

After a short break the graduates would next report for specialised training as fighter, transport or helicopter pilots.

This training could last another two-and-a-half years.


South Africa to extend peacekeeping in Burundi, Horn of Africa

South Africa on Thursday announced an extension of its peacekeeping operations in Burundi, Ethiopia and Eritrea.

"Cabinet approved the extension of the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) participation in the Burundi peace process by six months to June 2003," government spokesman Joel Netshitenzhe told reporters in Pretoria.

Some 700 South African troops have been in Bujumbura for the past year to provide protection to opposition politicians returning from exile to join transitional institutions set up in November 2001.

"The SANDF will also extend the participation of the 12 military personnel in the UN/African Union missions in Ethiopia and Eritrea by 16 months to March 2004," Netshitenzhe added.

At least six soldiers have died during South Africa's mission in Burundi.

In January, a financial clerk was apparently strangled to death in Bujumbura and last month a corporal died in a shooting incident at the South African base during an argument.

In October four South African soldiers drowned during a training exercise in a river near Bujumbura when acting as victims to be rescued by an South African air force helicopter.


CABINET APPROVES SANDF COMMISSIONING OF ROOIVALK.

Cabinet has approved a request by the SA National Defence Force (SANDF) to commission the locally manufactured Rooivalk combat support helicopter, government spokesman Joel Netshitenzhe said on Thursday.

"The helicopter programme represents significant levels of South African industrial and innovation expertise commensurate with world-class technology," he told reporters in Pretoria.

The approval came on Wednesday.

South Africa was one of five countries in the world producing a dedicated combat helicopter.

"This capability will stand the SANDF in good stead both in securing the country and in peacekeeping missions."

Defence department spokesman Sam Mkhwanazi said 12 helicopters would be commissioned. Two were still under construction and 10 were being prepared for operational use.

The helicopters should be introduced into service in about two-and-a-half years' time.

It would cost the SANDF about R660-million to get the helicopters in the air and maintain them, Mkhwanazi said.

Netshitenzhe also announced that Cabinet had approved a bill to improve corporate governance arrangements at arms procurer Armscor.

Staying with defence matters, he said Cabinet had given the go-ahead for a six-month extension of SANDF participation in peacekeeping in Burundi - until June next year.

It had also approved a 16-month extension, until March 2004, for 12 military personnel forming part of African Union and United Nations missions in Ethiopia and Eritrea.


LOHATLHA DEBACLE TO BE IRONED OUT IN A WINK - LAND AFFAIRS.

The Lohatlha land dispute would be sorted out shortly, land affairs department spokesman Abbey Makoe said on Tuesday.

"Within the wink of an eye the Lohatlha debacle will be ironed out," he told reporters in Pretoria.

A total of 57 protesters were arrested last Wednesday for allegedly entering the SA National Defence Force's Combat Training Centre at Lohatlha in the Northern Cape illegally.

They were part of a larger group protesting in support of the land claims which the Gatlhose, Maremane and Khosis communities instituted for the land on which the centre is situated.

The Land Claims Court recently overturned their bid to have the land returned to them. They have appealed the decision.

The Defence Ministry does not want to give up the Lohatlha land, saying it is needed for SANDF training.

On Tuesday Makoe said his department worked jointly with the defence department on the matter.

The land affairs department recognised the needs of "those poor, destitute people".

"Admittedly there have been bottlenecks somewhere. We've identified them. We are vigorously involved in the process of ironing them out."

There were vast tracts of land available in the Northern Cape, Makoe said.

"There is no reason why these people should not get land."


Loyal service and yet "Demobbed"--demobilization and the economic reintegration of South Africa's demobilized military personnel (1).

Introduction

The past decade has seen a process of demilitarization and disarmament taking place globally. However, this recently appears to have reached a turning point, with countries either experiencing a slump in their disarmament and defense conversion initiatives, or embarking upon rearmament programs. Despite this, many countries continue to focus on the economic and social reintegration of demobilized force members into society. (2) The complexities associated with the reintegration of demobilized personnel into civilian economies remain a burning issue for many, South Africa being no exception (see, for example, Motumi and McKenzie 1998; Williams 1998).

The integration of former statutory and non-statutory force members into the new South African National Defense Force (SANDF) has provided numerous challenges. The new defense force was to be rationalized along the lines of a modem, but smaller defense force, which would suit the new defense budget for peacetime purposes. Generally, it is agreed that the integration of seven previously contending forces was successful and functionally effective for the SANDF. The new defense force was more legitimate and representative than ever before. However, as a result of the unaffordable size of the new force after integration (more than 100,000 members), rationalization became imperative. The demobilization process in contrast to the integration process was dysfunctional and even non-functional for the members affected by it. And this is the main focus of the article. The rationalization process meant the demobilization of the integrated forces, which affected thousands of soldiers (including former combatants of the armed wings of the liberation movements) of whom the majority were unskilled or semiskilled in relation to the demands of the South African economy.

 (Suite)